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We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like.1 It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.
Daniel Kokotajlo (TIME100, NYT piece) is a former OpenAI researcher whose previous AI predictions have held up well.
Eli Lifland co-founded AI Digest, did AI robustness research, and ranks #1 on the RAND Forecasting Initiative all-time leaderboard.
Thomas Larsen founded the Center for AI Policy and did AI safety research at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Romeo Dean is completing a computer science concurrent bachelor’s and master’s degree at Harvard and previously was an AI Policy Fellow at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy.
Scott Alexander, blogger extraordinaire, volunteered to rewrite our content in an engaging style; the fun parts of the story are his and the boring parts are ours.
We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like.1 It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.
Daniel Kokotajlo (TIME100, NYT piece) is a former OpenAI researcher whose previous AI predictions have held up well.
Eli Lifland co-founded AI Digest, did AI robustness research, and ranks #1 on the RAND Forecasting Initiative all-time leaderboard.
Thomas Larsen founded the Center for AI Policy and did AI safety research at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Romeo Dean is completing a computer science concurrent bachelor’s and master’s degree at Harvard and previously was an AI Policy Fellow at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy.
Scott Alexander, blogger extraordinaire, volunteered to rewrite our content in an engaging style; the fun parts of the story are his and the boring parts are ours.